If I Have Several Positions In.Stock Which.Pposition Closes First Horse Racing Handicapping Post Position Biases for Good Bets and Winning Horses

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Horse Racing Handicapping Post Position Biases for Good Bets and Winning Horses

How do you handicap a horse race? Do you try to determine which horse is most likely to win and then bet on that one? Do you try to estimate each runner’s chances and then try to figure out which horse is actually a good bet based on the odds? Good handicappers and horse players actually do both. They estimate each horse’s chances but also try to determine what the odds should be on each one of the contenders.

One of the considerations they use when assessing the probability of the runner winning is the post position. Where a horse starts a race sometimes has a big impact on how it finishes. For example, at some tracks the one mile races start very close to the first turn. Horses starting from inside post positions have a big advantage. Short sprint races such as the 5 furlong race often favor inside posts as well because they make a short run up the backstretch then hit the turn.

Horses racing from the outside don’t have a chance to clear and make it to the rail so they get hung out on the turn and have to cover a lot more ground. For that reason we say that the inside runners have a positive post position bias. That bias can actually be expressed as a number that you can use in your calculations. Many programs now have that number available though it may take a little looking before you find it.

You can also calculate the bias in any kind of race just by looking at the post position statistics. If you know that the horses racing from the 1 post in 1 mile races won 20% of their races you can calculate post bias by comparing that number to the actual percentage of races they would have won if all things were equal.

For instance, if there are ten horses in a race and no other factors are considered, each one has a 10% chance of winning. If the 1 post produces 20% winners however, it means that the 1 post is very good indeed. How good is it? It has a positive impact value of 2.0. Using that factor along with other good horse racing handicapping factors will help you to decide if the odds you’re looking at for the horse are fair of if the runner is being bet way too heavily.

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