On Average How Many Stock Shares Prer.Company Should Ine Own Forecasting the Stock Market

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Forecasting the Stock Market

Every day I see in the financial

section of newspapers how to forecast what the

market will do in 6 months, 12 months, several

years. “Ten stocks that will double in the next 6

months.” Right! I have trouble trying to forecast

what it will do tomorrow. Do not trust any who

claims he knows what the future will be for the

market.

Of course, your broker will send you

gobs of slick material about various companies

that predict they will double or triple in the

next 12 months. On the New York Stock Exchange

there will be about one half of one per cent

(0.5%) of companies that will double this year.

Are you smart enough to pick those winners? I’m

not and I am considered a professional trader. And

I am sure your broker isn’t either. He just wants

to make a commission and is probably promoting a

stock his brokerage company wants to push.

Every investor wants to know the

future and will send money to some “expert” who

will send him news about a company that only (?)

he knows. And pigs can fly. One thing about the

market. It is almost impossible to keep a secret

and everyone knows everything about other

companies. As soon as some “analyst” finds a

cogent fact that can influence a stock price he

will share that “secret” with a few close friends.

Within minutes the “secret” is known by hundreds

of thousands and is immediately reflected in the

price of the stock.

If you do get sucked into one of these

money traps by some smooth-talking salesman or

newspaper verbiage I strongly suggest you

immediately plan your exit strategy. Without an

exit plan you can easily lose a large amount of

your “investment”. This is not an investment; it

is a gamble and should be treated as such. The

first thought of any professional trader is ‘if I

am wrong how much am I willing to lose’? Maybe 2%,

5%, certainly no more than 10%. Pros understand

that small losses are OK, but never take a big

loss.

From 1982 to 2000 it seemed everyone

was a financial genius. How many of those folks

kept those big winnings from 2000? Almost none.

Most lost 40% to 60% of their money. Brokers said,

“Hang in there. You are in for the long haul”.

Unfortunately he did not tell you that Modern

Portfolio Theory is based on a 40 year time line.

Yes, but understand you don’t need to

predict anything. Don’t forecast. What you can

easily learn is follow the major trend. You bought

in 1982 and you sold out in 2000. The trend can be

found in many ways with the simplest being posted

every day in Investors Business Daily newspaper

under the IBD Mutual Fund Index. When the Index

price is above the 200-day moving average you own

equities and when it is below you are in cash or

bonds. Nothing complicated,

Don’t try to forecast the market. Let the market

trend tell you.

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